Forecasting tournament: calibrated estimates

Teams answer a series of questions, from business quantities ("how many containers pass through this port in a year?") to questions about your own market. Instead of single numbers, they give a range they are 80 percent confident contains the true answer, and a probability for yes/no forecasts.

Scores reward both accuracy and honest uncertainty: ranges that are too narrow are penalised as much as ranges that are uselessly wide. Between rounds the facilitator introduces simple techniques, such as starting from a reference class, breaking a question into parts and updating when new information arrives.

Scores are shown round by round, so each team can see for itself whether the techniques help. The debrief connects the exercise to forecasts in your business, such as sales projections, project timelines and budgets, and how to present them with honest ranges.