Quick Scenario Cards

Objective

Practise thinking in several possible futures instead of one forecast, and find decisions that hold up in most of them.

Materials

• Prepared uncertainty cards (for example: demand grows fast / slowly; regulation tightens / stays the same)
• A large sheet with a two-by-two grid per team
• Markers and a timer

Step by step

1. Agree one decision the team faces, such as entering a new market or hiring ahead of demand.
2. Each team draws two uncertainty cards and writes them on the axes of its grid, creating four futures.
3. Give each future a short, memorable name and two or three sentences describing it.
4. For each future, ask: does our decision still make sense here? Mark it with a tick, a cross or a question mark.
5. Discuss which version of the decision works in most futures, and what signals would tell you which future is arriving.
6. Teams share their most surprising insight with the whole group.

Facilitator tips

• Choose uncertainties that are genuinely open; if everyone agrees what will happen, it is not an uncertainty.
• Avoid labelling futures as "good" and "bad"; each should be plausible and interesting.

Variations

• Let teams choose their own uncertainties from a longer list.
• Extend to 90 minutes and add an early-warning signal for each future.

Accessibility

Seated table activity. Cards can be read aloud, and the grid works on paper, a whiteboard or an online board.